Grape price at harvest 2020
The harvest in Mancha, the main producing area in Spain, could cover 55% of the national production this 2020/2021 campaign; It began with the earliest varieties in mid-August, followed by Tempranillo variety at the end of the same month, awaiting the bulk of the harvest for September 10th with the start of the queen in white variety, the Airen.
The quality of the fruit is excellent due to the absence of significant diseases throughout the year, accompanied by adequate ripening. Production forecasts at the national level have been revised downward, from initial, unofficial figures of more than 50Mhl to 43-44 Mhl advanced by Cooperatives Spanish Agro-alimentary at the end of July, being the latest estimate official published by the regional government of Castilla la Mancha of 42 Mhl on August 30th, even some specialized media reduce it to 40 Mhl. Let us remember that the national average of the last 15 years has been around 42 Mhl. Castilla La Mancha would correspond, according to regional administration sources, 23 mHl instead of the 25.5 predicted by Cooperatives Agro-alimentary in Castilla la Mancha at the beginning of August. These decreases in the initial production estimates are mainly due to the drought and high temperatures suffered during the summer. The first grape purchase prices released by Félix Solix and Grupo Vinartis are 30% lower than last season, prices that have provoked the anger of agrarian organizations and private farmers and the call for protests and strikes in different points of Mancha, considering that these prices do not cover, not even close, production costs. These protest actions have already had a first effect, the upward correction of the initial prices of some red varieties destined for D.O.P. Initial stocks, in the absence of official data from the MAPA (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food) for the month of July, the last month of the 19/20 season, is expected to be around 35 Mhl, which represents a few stocks initials of 2 Mhl (-5%) less than last season.
Regarding the situation in the rest of Europe, Italy and Portugal expect productions of 1% and 5.7% lower than a year ago, respectively, while France and Germany expect increases of around 3.5% . European exports have suffered a clear decline as a result of the pandemic, the Trump administration’s tariffs on packaged wine and the new Russian Viticulture Law. With the quantitative and objective data set forth and, taking into account the historical production, stocks and average prices of the last decade, we calculate that the prices of white sulfur musts should move around 0.26€/ l, which is would translate into concentrates at € 1.15 / kg approximately While it is true that this campaign we are faced with a completely new, unknown and unpredictable non-quantifiable variable, Covid-19, a factor whose evolution will depend on the level of consumption, marketing and therefore prices, which can move, according to our first estimates, between 0.95€/ kg and 1.05€/ kg for standard white concentrates and around 1,15€ / kg for standard red concentrated juices. As a result of this unusual and highly uncertain scenario, we consider it a year to be cautious, recommending that our clients stock up according to their needs, acting at the pace of events, and thus avoiding major commercial errors. We also ask you, as always, to contact us with suspiciously low offers from other companies in the sector.For our part, GAP Process guarantee you accurate and timely information, as well as the highest quality and authenticity, with the sole objective of helping you achieve the best prices and thus maximum profitability in your concentrated grape juice and must purchase operations.